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Episode 840: The Underrated Trout Edition
Date March 16, 2016 Summary Ben and Sam announce this year’s Effectively Wild fantasy game, “Beat PECOTA,” then answer listener emails about Mike Trout, game theory in the amateur draft, baseball caps, Goose Gossage, and more. Topics * Teams that passed on Mike Trout * Game theory and drafting unknown players * Baseball caps * Overcoming the Coors Field platoon effect * Worst MLB debuts * Player who tries to break the walk record * Goose Gossage's comments about changes to baseball Intro The Rolling Stones, "We Love You" Outro Al Green, "Old Time Lovin" Banter * Ben and Sam are grateful for the Patreon support provided so far. * Sam is starting up this year's Effectively Wild fantasy game, Beat PECOTA. Users have to pick players they think PECOTA has overrated or underrated. Email Questions * Mike (St. Louis, MO): "Since Mike Trout was passed on by so many teams could you hypothesize how those 21 teams may have been different if they had drafted him?" * David: "Put on your game theory hats for this question. It's the day of the first round of the baseball draft and before the first pick is made omniscient baseball god enters a room with a sealed envelope in his hand. Inside the envelope omniscient baseball god explains is a name of a draft eligible player who will be in the MLB All-Star game in five years. No other information is given about the player. No position, no word on whether five years from now marks his first All-Star appearance or his last. He may be a future Hall of Famer or he may have just backed into the All-Star game because his team had no other good choices of who to send to the game. But, he is a bird in the hand. It's guaranteed not to be completely wasted and it's guaranteed that in five years time he's not just a MLB role player. Omnitient baseball god tells the teams that at their draft pick the team can have this player now. The player will sign for slot money so signability is not an issue. If a team passed on the envelope and the player they draft ends up being the player in the envelope they are told to choose a different player. The envelope player would remain in the draft pool. Clearly, there are some years when players are though of as can't miss future All-Stars, however there is a chance that Bryce Harper is in the envelope and that by passing on the envelope they lose the rights to him. So sticking with your scouting reports might not always be the best decision. For every David Price there is a Luke Hochevar. For every Carlos Correa there is a Timothy Beckham. My question is how often, if ever, would the number one team disregard all of their scouting reports and take the name in the envelope? If your answer is never, at what point in the draft do you see a team taking the envelope? Would a typically #2 team take the name, #3, etc.?" * Mike: "When was the last time you guys wore a baseball cap with a MLB logo on it?" * Brett: "I recall hearing that Pete Rose would bat from the other side of the plate when facing knuckleballers that way it wouldn't mess up his swing when he had to face a normal pitcher over the next few days. What if the Rockies signed exclusively switch hitters and had them hit right handed at home and left handed on the road? If the worry is dealing with spin or perspective or gravity differently at home and away then the hitters would know 'when I hit right handed I'm at Coors Field and the spin is like this and when I hit left handed I'm at normal altitude and the spin is like this.' Would signing only likely slightly more expensive switch hitting players then telling them they need to relearn hitting when facing pitching from the same side be far more trouble than it's worth?" * Miles: "For reasons unknown Joey Votto or whoever you think has the best plate discipline in the game today, has decided he'd like to break the all-time walk total for a single season. To that end he will attempt to walk every plate appearance regardless of the circumstances. If a ball is thrown down the middle of the plate he'll attempt to foul it off. His plate appearances end only when he is HBP, walks, strikes out, or accidentally puts the ball in play. What would his line look like if he tried this?" * Jenny: "I am yet again wildly confused after reading Goose Gossage's comments about the current state of baseball and Jose Bautista. I'm sure you both saw his comments about Bautista being an 'f-ing disgrace to the game' as Gossage expressed a clear distaste for bat flipping and modern celebrations. What is it about old-timers that makes them so unwilling to accept the modern baseball culture? They make it seem like baseball has become a sport for clowns. I understand that flashy celebrations were not part of the game when Gossage was still active but are these sorts of outbursts warranted at all? He also said that baseball was being run by "a group of freaking nerds". Do you guys have an explanations for why these retired players love to hate on sabermetrics and analysis? It seems natural for me to accept the evolution of these advanced statistics. They are increasing our knowledge of baseball and giving us more comprehensive stats to interpret. We are consistently understanding more and more about each player and the game as a whole. Why do ex-players often see this as such a bad thing?" Play Index * Sam uses the Play Index to look up historically bad MLB debuts, the opposite of the Play Index segment in Episode 835. * Urbane Pickering went 0-7 in his debut in 1931. * There are several players who only had one at-bat in their debut and batted into a game ending double play. * Addison Russell and Kris Bryant were both 0-4 in their debuts and did not reach base. Derek Jeter went 0-5 in his debut. Notes * Sam wrote an entire article in response to Mike's question. He found out that in approximately 1/3 of seasons Mike Trout would change whether or not a team made the playoffs. * Sam thinks it would make a significant difference to David's question if a player were being drafted from college or high school. * Ben doesn't think he has worn an MLB team hat since at least 2007. * From 1990-2010 players (non-pitchers) under 30 who made an All-Star team produced on average 12.4 WAR by age 30. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 840: The Underrated Trout Edition * Should Have Taken Trout by Sam Miller * Beat PECOTA 2016 Standings Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes